2016 Energy Outlooks for Renewables – U.S. EIA and BP

Posted on Apr 22, 2016 in Blog | 0 comments

2016 EIA Short-term Energy Outlook (April 2016)

The 2016 EIA STEO projects that share of renewable electricity generation will increase by 10.0% in 2016 and by 5.1% in 2017.

The 2016 EIA STEO projects that share of renewable electricity generation will increase by 10.0% in 2016 and by 5.1% in 2017.

Utility-scale solar PV capacity is expected to grow by 9 GW in 2016. States leading in utility-scale solar capacity additions are California, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia.

Wind capacity increased by 13% in 2015, and it is forecast to increase by 8% in 2016 and by 9% in 2017. This is slower growth than in 2015 (13%), and will amount to 5.6% share of total electricity generation in 2017.

EIA expects EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) to increase biomass-based diesel consumption and exports. Ethanol consumption and production is also expected to slightly increase.

2016 BP Energy Outlook

BP’s “base case”: world GDP more than doubles, but corresponding growth in energy use increases by a third due to gains in energy efficiency.  Energy intensity in terms of energy used per unit of GDP decreases between 2014 to 2035.

Renewables are projected to grow on a global scale, amounting to a 9% share in the global fuel mix by 2035.  Carbon emissions will continue to increase during this time window, but its rate of increase will become slower.   Asia will drive increases in hydro and nuclear energy (by 1.9% p.a. and 1.8% p.a., respectively), along with Brazil’s contributions to hydro.   The growth of renewables is supported by decreasing costs of onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV – the costs of which are projected to fall by around 25% and 40%  respectively over the next 20 years.

 

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